Working papers

The political economy of AI: Towards democratic control of the means of prediction
Requested for the Handbook on Algorithmic Governance and the Law, 2022
Manuscript: handbook_politicalecon_ai.pdf

Employing the unemployed of Marienthal: Evaluation of a guaranteed job program
(joint with Lukas Lehner)
Working paper, 2022
Manuscript: Jobguarantee_marienthal.pdf
Online Appendix: Online_appendix_jobguarantee_marienthal.pdf
Code (study design):
Code (data analysis):
Pre-analysis plan: PAP_job_guarantee_Marienthal.pdf
(Registered as AEARCTR-0006706)

Rationalizing Pre-Analysis Plans: Statistical Decisions Subject to Implementability
(joint with Jann Spiess)
Working paper, 2022
Manuscript: theory_of_PAPs.pdf

An Adaptive Targeted Field Experiment: Job Search Assistance for Refugees in Jordan
(joint with Stefano Caria, Grant Gordon, Soha Osman, Simon Quinn and Alex Teytelboym)
Revise and resubmit, Journal of the European Economic Association, 2022
Manuscript: RefugeesWork.pdf
Supplementary appendix: RefugeesWork_OnlineAppendix.pdf
Registered pre-analysis plan: AEA RCT Registry

Adaptive maximization of social welfare
(joint with Nicolò Cesa-Bianchi and Roberto Colomboni)
Working paper, 2022
Manuscript: adaptive_social_welfare.pdf

Experimental evaluation of a Basic Income Pilot in Germany
(joint with Sandra Bohmann, Susann Fiedler, Jürgen Schupp, and Frederik Schwerter)
Experiment in progress, 2021-2024
Pre-analysis plan: pre_analysis_plan_mein_grundeinkommen.pdf
(Registered as AEARCTR-0007734)


Matching with semi-bandits
(joint with Alex Teytelboym)
Forthcoming, Econometrics Journal, 2022
Manuscript: adaptive_combinatorial.pdf
Replication code: Github

Which findings should be published
(joint with Alex Frankel)
American Economic Journal: Microeconomics, 2022
Manuscript: findings.pdf

Who wins, who loses? Identification of conditional causal effects, and the welfare impact of changing wages
Journal of Econometrics, 2022
Manuscript: whowinswholoses.pdf

Of forking paths and tied hands: Selective publication of findings, and what economists should do about it
Journal of Economic Perspectives, 2021
Manuscript: statistics_social_science.pdf

Fairness, equality, and power in algorithmic decision making
(joint with Rediet Abebe)
Proceedings of the ACM Conference on Fairness, Accountability, and Transparency, 2021
Manuscript: fairness_equality_power.pdf

Adaptive treatment assignment in experiments for policy choice
(joint with Anja Sautmann)
Econometrica, 2021
Manuscript: adaptiveexperimentspolicy.pdf
Supplementary Appendix: adaptiveexperimentspolicy_supplement.pdf
Interactive Dashboard for your own experiment: exploration_sampling_dashboard
Correction regarding Theorem 1, Item 3: correction_adaptiveexperimentspolicy.pdf

Adaptive Targeted Infectious Disease Testing
(joint with Alex Teytelboym)
Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 2020
Manuscript: adaptive_testing.pdf

Approximate cross-validation: Guarantees for model assessment and selection
(joint with Ashia Wilson and Lester Mackey)
Artificial Intelligence and Statistics, 2020
Manuscript: acv-risk.pdf

No data in the void: Values and distributional conflicts in empirical policy research and artificial intelligence
Economics For Inclusive Prosperity, 2019
Manuscript: No-Data-in-the-Void.pdf

Identification of and correction for publication bias
(joint with Isaiah Andrews)
American Economic Review, 2019
Manuscript: publicationbias.pdf

Choosing among regularized estimators in empirical economics - the risk of machine learning
(joint with Alberto Abadie)
Review of Economics and Statistics, 2019
Manuscript: riskml.pdf

How to use economic theory to improve estimators: Shrinking toward theoretical restrictions
(joint with Pirmin Fessler)
Review of Economics and Statistics, 2019
Manuscript: shrinkingtotheory.pdf
Supplement: shrinkingtotheorysupplement.pdf
Code and data for replication: Dataverse

Uniformity and the delta method
Journal of Econometric Methods, 2019
Manuscript: uniformitynote.pdf

Optimal taxation and insurance using machine learning - sufficient statistics and beyond
Journal of Public Economics, 2018
Manuscript: PolicyDecisions.pdf

Survey mode effects on income inequality measurement
(joint with Pirmin Fessler and Peter Lindner)
Journal of Economic Inequality, 2018
Manuscript: surveymodeinequality.pdf
Supplement: surveymethodinequalitysupplement.pdf

Corrigendum: Instrumental Variables with Unrestricted Heterogeneity and Continuous Treatment
(joint with Stefan Hoderlein, Hajo Holzmann, and Alexander Meister),
The Review of Economic Studies, 2017
Manuscript: commentcontinuousivfinal.pdf

Normative individualism and research on inequality
ITEMS, 2016

Why Experimenters Might Not Always Want to Randomize, and What They Could Do Instead
Political Analysis, 2016
Manuscript: experimentaldesign.pdf
Supplement: ExperimentalDesignPAOnlineAppendix.pdf

Partial identification, distributional preferences, and the welfare ranking of policies
Review of Economics and Statistics, 2016
Manuscript: identificationpolicy.pdf

Identification in a model of sorting with social externalities and the causes of urban segregation
Journal of Urban Economics, 2015
Manuscript: sortingpaper.pdf
Supplement: sortingsupplement.pdf

Nonparametric inference on the number of equilibria
The Econometrics Journal, 2015
Manuscript: testingmultequ.pdf
Supplement: testingmulteqsupplement.pdf

Instrumental variables with unrestricted heterogeneity and continuous treatment
Review of Economic Studies, 2014 (see corrigendum above)
Manuscript: continuousiv.pdf

The impact of changing family structures on the income distribution among Costa Rican women 1993-2009
(joint with Alvaro Ramos-Chaves)
Feminist Economics, 2014
Manuscript: femdist.pdf

A nonparametric test for path dependence in discrete panel data
Economics Letters, 2011
Manuscript: pathdependence.pdf

Identification in Triangular Systems Using Control Functions
Econometric Theory, 2011
Manuscript: controlfunctions.pdf

Semiparametrically Efficient Estimation of Conditional Instrumental Variable Parameters
International Journal of Biostatistics, 2009
Manuscript: efficientconditionaliv.pdf