Research
The Means of Prediction: How AI Really Works (and Who Benefits)
University of Chicago Press, November 2025.
Working papers
Causal Inference for Social Network Formation
(joint with Elizabeth Linos and Sanaz Mobasseri)
Working paper, 2026
Manuscript: network_formation.pdf
Appendix: network_formation_supplement.pdf
Code: Github repository
Literature Review and Evidence Aggregation: A Toolkit for Applied Micro
(joint with Peter Ganong and Avik Garg)
Working paper, 2026, Requested for Journal of Economic Literature
Manuscript: evidence_aggregation_toolkit.pdf
From Cross-Validation to SURE: Asymptotic Risk of Tuned Regularized Estimators
(joint with Karun Adusumilli and Ashia Wilson)
Working paper, 2026
Manuscript: cv_and_sure.pdf
Code: Github repository
Experimental Evaluation of a Basic Income Pilot in Germany
(joint with Sandra Bohmann, Susann Fiedler, Jürgen Schupp, and Frederik Schwerter)
Working papers, 2026
Manuscript 1 (Cash Transfers, Mental Health, and Agency): cash_mentalhealth_agency.pdf
Manuscript 2 (Basic Income and Labor Supply): basic_income_econ.pdf
Appendix: basic_income_econ_supplement
Optimal Pre-Analysis Plans: Statistical Decisions Subject to Implementability
(joint with Jann Spiess)
Working paper, 2025
Manuscript: optimal_preanalysis_plans.pdf
Interactive App: The_PAP_App
Repository and tutorial explaining the App: Github repository
Publications
Employing the unemployed of Marienthal: Evaluation of a guaranteed job program
(joint with Lukas Lehner)
Forthcoming, AEJ:Policy, 2026
Manuscript: Jobguarantee_marienthal.pdf
Appendix: Appendix_marienthal.pdf
Code: study design, data analysis
Pre-analysis plan: PAP_job_guarantee_Marienthal.pdf, registered as AEARCTR-0006706
Adaptive maximization of social welfare
(joint with Nicolò Cesa-Bianchi and Roberto Colomboni)
Econometrica, 2025
Manuscript: adaptive_social_welfare.pdf
The political economy of AI: Towards democratic control of the means of prediction
Handbook on Algorithmic Governance and the Law, 2025
Manuscript: handbook_politicalecon_ai.pdf
Algorithmic bias and racial inequality: A critical review
OxREP special issue on Race and Economics, 2024
Manuscript: Algorithmic_bias_inequality.pdf
An Adaptive Targeted Field Experiment: Job Search Assistance for Refugees in Jordan
(joint with Stefano Caria, Grant Gordon, Soha Osman, Simon Quinn and Alex Teytelboym)
Journal of the European Economic Association, 2024
Manuscript: RefugeesWork.pdf
Supplementary appendix: RefugeesWork_OnlineAppendix.pdf
Registered pre-analysis plan: AEA RCT Registry
Matching with semi-bandits
(joint with Alex Teytelboym)
Econometrics Journal, 2023
Manuscript: adaptive_combinatorial.pdf
Replication code: Github
Which findings should be published
(joint with Alex Frankel)
American Economic Journal: Microeconomics, 2022
Manuscript: findings.pdf
Online appendix: findings_supplement.pdf
Who wins, who loses? Identification of conditional causal effects, and the welfare impact of changing wages
Journal of Econometrics, 2022
Manuscript: whowinswholoses.pdf
Of forking paths and tied hands: Selective publication of findings, and what economists should do about it
Journal of Economic Perspectives, 2021
Manuscript: statistics_social_science.pdf
Fairness, equality, and power in algorithmic decision making
(joint with Rediet Abebe)
Proceedings of the ACM Conference on Fairness, Accountability, and Transparency, 2021
Manuscript: fairness_equality_power.pdf
Adaptive treatment assignment in experiments for policy choice
(joint with Anja Sautmann)
Econometrica, 2021
Manuscript: adaptiveexperimentspolicy.pdf
Supplementary Appendix: adaptiveexperimentspolicy_supplement.pdf
Interactive Dashboard for your own experiment: exploration_sampling_dashboard
Correction regarding Theorem 1, Item 3: correction_adaptiveexperimentspolicy.pdf
Adaptive Targeted Infectious Disease Testing
(joint with Alex Teytelboym)
Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 2020
Manuscript: adaptive_testing.pdf
Approximate cross-validation: Guarantees for model assessment and selection
(joint with Ashia Wilson and Lester Mackey)
Artificial Intelligence and Statistics, 2020
Manuscript: acv-risk.pdf
No data in the void: Values and distributional conflicts in empirical policy research and artificial intelligence
Economics For Inclusive Prosperity, 2019
Manuscript: No-Data-in-the-Void.pdf
Identification of and correction for publication bias
(joint with Isaiah Andrews)
American Economic Review, 2019
Manuscript: publicationbias.pdf
Choosing among regularized estimators in empirical economics - the risk of machine learning
(joint with Alberto Abadie)
Review of Economics and Statistics, 2019
Manuscript: riskml.pdf
How to use economic theory to improve estimators: Shrinking toward theoretical restrictions
(joint with Pirmin Fessler)
Review of Economics and Statistics, 2019
Manuscript: shrinkingtotheory.pdf
Supplement: shrinkingtotheorysupplement.pdf
Code and data for replication: Dataverse
Uniformity and the delta method
Journal of Econometric Methods, 2019
Manuscript: uniformitynote.pdf
Optimal taxation and insurance using machine learning - sufficient statistics and beyond
Journal of Public Economics, 2018
Manuscript: PolicyDecisions.pdf
Survey mode effects on income inequality measurement
(joint with Pirmin Fessler and Peter Lindner)
Journal of Economic Inequality, 2018
Manuscript: surveymodeinequality.pdf
Supplement: surveymethodinequalitysupplement.pdf
Corrigendum: Instrumental Variables with Unrestricted Heterogeneity and Continuous Treatment
(joint with Stefan Hoderlein, Hajo Holzmann, and Alexander Meister),
The Review of Economic Studies, 2017
Manuscript: commentcontinuousivfinal.pdf
Normative individualism and research on inequality
ITEMS, 2016
Manuscript: http://items.ssrc.org/normative-individualism-and-research-on-inequality/
Why Experimenters Might Not Always Want to Randomize, and What They Could Do Instead
Political Analysis, 2016
Manuscript: experimentaldesign.pdf
Supplement: ExperimentalDesignPAOnlineAppendix.pdf
Partial identification, distributional preferences, and the welfare ranking of policies
Review of Economics and Statistics, 2016
Manuscript: identificationpolicy.pdf
Identification in a model of sorting with social externalities and the causes of urban segregation
Journal of Urban Economics, 2015
Manuscript: sortingpaper.pdf
Supplement: sortingsupplement.pdf
Nonparametric inference on the number of equilibria
The Econometrics Journal, 2015
Manuscript: testingmultequ.pdf
Supplement: testingmulteqsupplement.pdf
Instrumental variables with unrestricted heterogeneity and continuous treatment
Review of Economic Studies, 2014 (see corrigendum above)
Manuscript: continuousiv.pdf
The impact of changing family structures on the income distribution among Costa Rican women 1993-2009
(joint with Alvaro Ramos-Chaves)
Feminist Economics, 2014
Manuscript: femdist.pdf
A nonparametric test for path dependence in discrete panel data
Economics Letters, 2011
Manuscript: pathdependence.pdf
Identification in Triangular Systems Using Control Functions
Econometric Theory, 2011
Manuscript: controlfunctions.pdf
Semiparametrically Efficient Estimation of Conditional Instrumental Variable Parameters
International Journal of Biostatistics, 2009
Manuscript: efficientconditionaliv.pdf