Research
The Means of Prediction: How AI Really Works (and Who Benefits)
Book
University of Chicago Press, forthcoming fall 2025
Working papers
Adaptive maximization of social welfare
(joint with Nicolò Cesa-Bianchi and Roberto Colomboni)
Revise and resubmit, Econometrica, 2024
Manuscript: adaptive_social_welfare.pdf
Optimal Pre-Analysis Plans: Statistical Decisions Subject to Implementability
(joint with Jann Spiess)
Working paper, 2024
Manuscript: optimal_preanalysis_plans.pdf
Interactive App: The_PAP_App
Repository and tutorial explaining the App: Github repository
Employing the unemployed of Marienthal: Evaluation of a guaranteed job program
(joint with Lukas Lehner)
Working paper, 2023
Manuscript: Jobguarantee_marienthal.pdf
Appendix: Appendix_marienthal.pdf
Code (study design): https://github.com/maxkasy/Marienthal
Code (data analysis): https://github.com/maxkasy/Marienthal_Analysis
Pre-analysis plan: PAP_job_guarantee_Marienthal.pdf
(Registered as AEARCTR-0006706)
The political economy of AI: Towards democratic control of the means of prediction
Requested for the Handbook on Algorithmic Governance and the Law, 2022
Manuscript: handbook_politicalecon_ai.pdf
Experimental evaluation of a Basic Income Pilot in Germany
(joint with Sandra Bohmann, Susann Fiedler, Jürgen Schupp, and Frederik Schwerter)
Experiment in progress, 2021-2024
Pre-analysis plan: pre_analysis_plan_mein_grundeinkommen.pdf
(Registered as AEARCTR-0007734)
Publications
Algorithmic bias and racial inequality: A critical review
Forthcoming, OxREP special issue on Race and Economics, 2024
Manuscript: Algorithmic_bias_inequality.pdf
An Adaptive Targeted Field Experiment: Job Search Assistance for Refugees in Jordan
(joint with Stefano Caria, Grant Gordon, Soha Osman, Simon Quinn and Alex Teytelboym)
Forthcoming, Journal of the European Economic Association, 2023
Manuscript: RefugeesWork.pdf
Supplementary appendix: RefugeesWork_OnlineAppendix.pdf
Registered pre-analysis plan: AEA RCT Registry
Matching with semi-bandits
(joint with Alex Teytelboym)
Econometrics Journal, 2023
Manuscript: adaptive_combinatorial.pdf
Replication code: Github
Which findings should be published
(joint with Alex Frankel)
American Economic Journal: Microeconomics, 2022
Manuscript: findings.pdf
Who wins, who loses? Identification of conditional causal effects, and the welfare impact of changing wages
Journal of Econometrics, 2022
Manuscript: whowinswholoses.pdf
Of forking paths and tied hands: Selective publication of findings, and what economists should do about it
Journal of Economic Perspectives, 2021
Manuscript: statistics_social_science.pdf
Fairness, equality, and power in algorithmic decision making
(joint with Rediet Abebe)
Proceedings of the ACM Conference on Fairness, Accountability, and Transparency, 2021
Manuscript: fairness_equality_power.pdf
Adaptive treatment assignment in experiments for policy choice
(joint with Anja Sautmann)
Econometrica, 2021
Manuscript: adaptiveexperimentspolicy.pdf
Supplementary Appendix: adaptiveexperimentspolicy_supplement.pdf
Interactive Dashboard for your own experiment: exploration_sampling_dashboard
Correction regarding Theorem 1, Item 3: correction_adaptiveexperimentspolicy.pdf
Adaptive Targeted Infectious Disease Testing
(joint with Alex Teytelboym)
Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 2020
Manuscript: adaptive_testing.pdf
Approximate cross-validation: Guarantees for model assessment and selection
(joint with Ashia Wilson and Lester Mackey)
Artificial Intelligence and Statistics, 2020
Manuscript: acv-risk.pdf
No data in the void: Values and distributional conflicts in empirical policy research and artificial intelligence
Economics For Inclusive Prosperity, 2019
Manuscript: No-Data-in-the-Void.pdf
Identification of and correction for publication bias
(joint with Isaiah Andrews)
American Economic Review, 2019
Manuscript: publicationbias.pdf
Choosing among regularized estimators in empirical economics - the risk of machine learning
(joint with Alberto Abadie)
Review of Economics and Statistics, 2019
Manuscript: riskml.pdf
How to use economic theory to improve estimators: Shrinking toward theoretical restrictions
(joint with Pirmin Fessler)
Review of Economics and Statistics, 2019
Manuscript: shrinkingtotheory.pdf
Supplement: shrinkingtotheorysupplement.pdf
Code and data for replication: Dataverse
Uniformity and the delta method
Journal of Econometric Methods, 2019
Manuscript: uniformitynote.pdf
Optimal taxation and insurance using machine learning - sufficient statistics and beyond
Journal of Public Economics, 2018
Manuscript: PolicyDecisions.pdf
Survey mode effects on income inequality measurement
(joint with Pirmin Fessler and Peter Lindner)
Journal of Economic Inequality, 2018
Manuscript: surveymodeinequality.pdf
Supplement: surveymethodinequalitysupplement.pdf
Corrigendum: Instrumental Variables with Unrestricted Heterogeneity and Continuous Treatment
(joint with Stefan Hoderlein, Hajo Holzmann, and Alexander Meister),
The Review of Economic Studies, 2017
Manuscript: commentcontinuousivfinal.pdf
Normative individualism and research on inequality
ITEMS, 2016
Manuscript: http://items.ssrc.org/normative-individualism-and-research-on-inequality/
Why Experimenters Might Not Always Want to Randomize, and What They Could Do Instead
Political Analysis, 2016
Manuscript: experimentaldesign.pdf
Supplement: ExperimentalDesignPAOnlineAppendix.pdf
Partial identification, distributional preferences, and the welfare ranking of policies
Review of Economics and Statistics, 2016
Manuscript: identificationpolicy.pdf
Identification in a model of sorting with social externalities and the causes of urban segregation
Journal of Urban Economics, 2015
Manuscript: sortingpaper.pdf
Supplement: sortingsupplement.pdf
Nonparametric inference on the number of equilibria
The Econometrics Journal, 2015
Manuscript: testingmultequ.pdf
Supplement: testingmulteqsupplement.pdf
Instrumental variables with unrestricted heterogeneity and continuous treatment
Review of Economic Studies, 2014 (see corrigendum above)
Manuscript: continuousiv.pdf
The impact of changing family structures on the income distribution among Costa Rican women 1993-2009
(joint with Alvaro Ramos-Chaves)
Feminist Economics, 2014
Manuscript: femdist.pdf
A nonparametric test for path dependence in discrete panel data
Economics Letters, 2011
Manuscript: pathdependence.pdf
Identification in Triangular Systems Using Control Functions
Econometric Theory, 2011
Manuscript: controlfunctions.pdf
Semiparametrically Efficient Estimation of Conditional Instrumental Variable Parameters
International Journal of Biostatistics, 2009
Manuscript: efficientconditionaliv.pdf