Summary statistics

Column 1

Number of observations

3709

Success rate

Distribution across treatments

Column 2

Last update

May 09 2020

Success rate by treatment

Weeks

Column 1

Success rate by week of intake

Assignment probabilities

Column 2

Observations by treatment and week of intake

Assignment shares

Strata

Column 1

Success rate by stratum

Column 2

Distribution across strata

Tabulated data

The following tables have treatment in columns and strata in rows.

Column 1

Total number of observations

cash information nudge control
Syr, M, < HS, never emp 51 35 61 58
Syr, M, < HS, ever emp 86 75 102 152
Syr, M, >= HS, never emp 3 3 3 4
Syr, M, >= HS, ever emp 4 2 11 12
Syr, F, < HS, never emp 244 111 151 156
Syr, F, < HS, ever emp 61 32 89 89
Syr, F, >= HS, never emp 10 5 10 9
Syr, F, >= HS, ever emp 3 3 5 5
Jor, M, < HS, never emp 47 44 44 106
Jor, M, < HS, ever emp 40 90 120 110
Jor, M, >= HS, never emp 18 23 12 9
Jor, M, >= HS, ever emp 47 23 27 65
Jor, F, < HS, never emp 101 193 153 117
Jor, F, < HS, ever emp 65 68 78 54
Jor, F, >= HS, never emp 58 52 60 48
Jor, F, >= HS, ever emp 22 23 87 60

Column 2

Total number of successes

cash information nudge control
Syr, M, < HS, never emp 2 0 2 2
Syr, M, < HS, ever emp 6 3 6 9
Syr, M, >= HS, never emp 1 0 0 1
Syr, M, >= HS, ever emp 0 0 1 1
Syr, F, < HS, never emp 6 2 1 0
Syr, F, < HS, ever emp 1 1 3 2
Syr, F, >= HS, never emp 1 0 1 0
Syr, F, >= HS, ever emp 0 0 0 0
Jor, M, < HS, never emp 2 1 3 8
Jor, M, < HS, ever emp 4 9 13 13
Jor, M, >= HS, never emp 3 4 1 0
Jor, M, >= HS, ever emp 4 2 1 6
Jor, F, < HS, never emp 2 9 8 4
Jor, F, < HS, ever emp 9 8 4 4
Jor, F, >= HS, never emp 5 2 1 3
Jor, F, >= HS, ever emp 0 0 13 3

Column 3

Success rates

cash information nudge control
Syr, M, < HS, never emp 0.04 0.00 0.03 0.03
Syr, M, < HS, ever emp 0.07 0.04 0.06 0.06
Syr, M, >= HS, never emp 0.33 0.00 0.00 0.25
Syr, M, >= HS, ever emp 0.00 0.00 0.09 0.08
Syr, F, < HS, never emp 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.00
Syr, F, < HS, ever emp 0.02 0.03 0.03 0.02
Syr, F, >= HS, never emp 0.10 0.00 0.10 0.00
Syr, F, >= HS, ever emp 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Jor, M, < HS, never emp 0.04 0.02 0.07 0.08
Jor, M, < HS, ever emp 0.10 0.10 0.11 0.12
Jor, M, >= HS, never emp 0.17 0.17 0.08 0.00
Jor, M, >= HS, ever emp 0.09 0.09 0.04 0.09
Jor, F, < HS, never emp 0.02 0.05 0.05 0.03
Jor, F, < HS, ever emp 0.14 0.12 0.05 0.07
Jor, F, >= HS, never emp 0.09 0.04 0.02 0.06
Jor, F, >= HS, ever emp 0.00 0.00 0.15 0.05

Parameter estimates

Column 1

Posterior expectation of success probabilities

cash information nudge control
Syr, M, < HS, never emp 0.05 0.03 0.04 0.04
Syr, M, < HS, ever emp 0.07 0.05 0.06 0.06
Syr, M, >= HS, never emp 0.09 0.05 0.06 0.09
Syr, M, >= HS, ever emp 0.06 0.06 0.07 0.07
Syr, F, < HS, never emp 0.03 0.03 0.02 0.01
Syr, F, < HS, ever emp 0.04 0.05 0.04 0.03
Syr, F, >= HS, never emp 0.08 0.05 0.07 0.05
Syr, F, >= HS, ever emp 0.06 0.05 0.06 0.05
Jor, M, < HS, never emp 0.05 0.04 0.07 0.07
Jor, M, < HS, ever emp 0.08 0.08 0.10 0.10
Jor, M, >= HS, never emp 0.10 0.10 0.07 0.05
Jor, M, >= HS, ever emp 0.08 0.07 0.05 0.08
Jor, F, < HS, never emp 0.03 0.05 0.05 0.04
Jor, F, < HS, ever emp 0.11 0.09 0.06 0.07
Jor, F, >= HS, never emp 0.08 0.05 0.03 0.06
Jor, F, >= HS, ever emp 0.04 0.04 0.13 0.05

Column 2

Posterior probability for each treatment to be optimal, given stratum

stratum cash information nudge control
Syr, M, < HS, never emp 0.39 0.11 0.25 0.25
Syr, M, < HS, ever emp 0.42 0.09 0.26 0.23
Syr, M, >= HS, never emp 0.40 0.12 0.16 0.33
Syr, M, >= HS, ever emp 0.23 0.18 0.32 0.27
Syr, F, < HS, never emp 0.48 0.41 0.09 0.03
Syr, F, < HS, ever emp 0.21 0.37 0.29 0.14
Syr, F, >= HS, never emp 0.37 0.15 0.35 0.13
Syr, F, >= HS, ever emp 0.32 0.22 0.24 0.22
Jor, M, < HS, never emp 0.17 0.06 0.33 0.43
Jor, M, < HS, ever emp 0.17 0.15 0.29 0.38
Jor, M, >= HS, never emp 0.40 0.39 0.15 0.06
Jor, M, >= HS, ever emp 0.31 0.22 0.10 0.37
Jor, F, < HS, never emp 0.09 0.29 0.47 0.15
Jor, F, < HS, ever emp 0.58 0.30 0.03 0.09
Jor, F, >= HS, never emp 0.58 0.11 0.04 0.27
Jor, F, >= HS, ever emp 0.03 0.01 0.93 0.03

Column 3

Current assignment probabilities

stratum cash information nudge control
Syr, M, < HS, never emp 0.36 0.14 0.25 0.25
Syr, M, < HS, ever emp 0.39 0.13 0.25 0.23
Syr, M, >= HS, never emp 0.37 0.14 0.18 0.31
Syr, M, >= HS, ever emp 0.23 0.19 0.31 0.27
Syr, F, < HS, never emp 0.43 0.37 0.12 0.07
Syr, F, < HS, ever emp 0.22 0.34 0.28 0.16
Syr, F, >= HS, never emp 0.35 0.17 0.33 0.15
Syr, F, >= HS, ever emp 0.31 0.23 0.25 0.22
Jor, M, < HS, never emp 0.19 0.10 0.32 0.39
Jor, M, < HS, ever emp 0.19 0.17 0.29 0.36
Jor, M, >= HS, never emp 0.37 0.36 0.17 0.10
Jor, M, >= HS, ever emp 0.30 0.22 0.13 0.34
Jor, F, < HS, never emp 0.12 0.28 0.42 0.17
Jor, F, < HS, ever emp 0.52 0.29 0.07 0.12
Jor, F, >= HS, never emp 0.51 0.14 0.08 0.27
Jor, F, >= HS, ever emp 0.07 0.06 0.80 0.07

Inference, parameters

Column 2

90% credible sets for success probabilities

stratum cash information nudge control
Syr, M, < HS, never emp (0.020, 0.100) (0.000, 0.070) (0.010, 0.080) (0.010, 0.080)
Syr, M, < HS, ever emp (0.040, 0.110) (0.020, 0.080) (0.030, 0.100) (0.030, 0.090)
Syr, M, >= HS, never emp (0.030, 0.210) (0.010, 0.130) (0.010, 0.140) (0.020, 0.190)
Syr, M, >= HS, ever emp (0.010, 0.140) (0.010, 0.130) (0.020, 0.150) (0.020, 0.140)
Syr, F, < HS, never emp (0.020, 0.050) (0.010, 0.060) (0.000, 0.040) (0.000, 0.030)
Syr, F, < HS, ever emp (0.010, 0.070) (0.010, 0.090) (0.020, 0.080) (0.010, 0.060)
Syr, F, >= HS, never emp (0.020, 0.160) (0.010, 0.120) (0.020, 0.150) (0.010, 0.110)
Syr, F, >= HS, ever emp (0.010, 0.140) (0.010, 0.130) (0.010, 0.130) (0.010, 0.130)
Jor, M, < HS, never emp (0.020, 0.100) (0.010, 0.080) (0.030, 0.120) (0.040, 0.110)
Jor, M, < HS, ever emp (0.040, 0.150) (0.050, 0.130) (0.060, 0.140) (0.060, 0.150)
Jor, M, >= HS, never emp (0.040, 0.190) (0.040, 0.190) (0.020, 0.150) (0.010, 0.110)
Jor, M, >= HS, ever emp (0.040, 0.130) (0.020, 0.140) (0.010, 0.110) (0.040, 0.130)
Jor, F, < HS, never emp (0.010, 0.060) (0.030, 0.070) (0.030, 0.080) (0.020, 0.070)
Jor, F, < HS, ever emp (0.060, 0.170) (0.050, 0.150) (0.020, 0.090) (0.030, 0.120)
Jor, F, >= HS, never emp (0.040, 0.130) (0.020, 0.090) (0.010, 0.070) (0.020, 0.110)
Jor, F, >= HS, ever emp (0.010, 0.090) (0.000, 0.080) (0.080, 0.180) (0.020, 0.100)

Column 4

90% credible sets, plotted

Inference, treatment effects

Column 1

95% credible sets for population weighted average potential outcomes

95% credible sets, Syrians only

95% credible sets, Jordanians only

Column 2

95% credible sets for population weighted treatment contrasts against control

95% credible sets, Syrians only

95% credible sets, Jordanians only

Policy comparisons

Column 1

Point estimates

Comparison of the average potential outcomes for the actually chosen treatment assignment to the average that would have obtained under random assignment, \[\begin{align*} \Delta_1 &= \tfrac{1}{N} \sum_{i,t} \left ( \hat E\left [\theta^{D_{it} X_{it}} \right ] - \tfrac{1}{4} \sum_d \hat E\left [\theta^{d X_{it}}\right ] \right )\\ &=0.002 \end{align*}\]

Comparison of the optimal targeted policy, and the optimal non-targeted policy, to the default of (treatment \(0\)), \[\begin{align*} \Delta_2 &= \sum_x \left ( \max_d \hat E\left [\theta^{dx} \right ] - \hat E\left [\theta^{0x} \right ] \right ) p^x\\ &= 0.017, \\ \Delta_3 &= \max_d \sum_x \left (\hat E\left [\theta^{dx} \right ] - \hat E\left [\theta^{0x} \right ] \right ) p^x \\ &= 0.006. \end{align*}\]

Column 2

Credible sets

95% credible sets: \[\begin{align*} \Delta_1: &\quad (0.000, 0.004)\\ \Delta_2: &\quad (0.001, 0.034)\\ \Delta_3: &\quad (-0.015, 0.027) \end{align*}\]

90% credible sets: \[\begin{align*} \Delta_1: &\quad (0.000, 0.004)\\ \Delta_2: &\quad (0.003, 0.031)\\ \Delta_3: &\quad (-0.012, 0.023) \end{align*}\]

Source data

Source data, sorted by date